Ecological and socio-economic assessment of the Mahavavy-Kinkony complex protected area coastline in Madagascar in response to climate change impacts

Résumé

This study, focusing on marine and coastal areas, was conducted in the western region of Madagascar with the objective of assessing the impact of climate change on conservation efforts in coastal areas. The methodology involved surveys, inventories, and monitoring activities, with a particular focus on analyzing climatic parameters such as atmospheric air temperature, rainfall, winds, and cyclones. A baseline climate analysis was conducted, followed by projections according to the RCP4.5 scenario, providing insights into climate trends from 2020 to 2099. The findings reveal that a significant number of villagers have observed and adapted to climate change through their daily activities. Observable changes include a shortened rainy period with intense rainfall and an extended dry period, erosion of the Mahavavy River bed due to the degradation of the galleries forest  and siltation of the mangrove mudflats, after heavy rains or cyclones. Observations also indicate stresses on coastal and marine ecosystems due to fluctuations in physicochemical parameters in coastal areas. Consequently, the behaviors, reproduction, and survival of birds, crabs, and fish are adversely affected. In light of these findings, recommendations are put forth for the manager to enhance resilience, emphasizing the importance of continuing ecological restoration efforts, particularly in mangroves, gallery forests, and coral reefs within the CMK.